Forecasting and Business Decisions | Audit and Experimentation Prompt

What this prompt helps you do

Audit an existing page, process, dataset, or asset, separate facts from assumptions, and turn the highest-priority issues into tests with baselines, metrics, and stop conditions.

Prompt text

Act as a ecommerce business forecasting and scenario-planning lead and audit the current [Page/Process/Data/Asset] related to the objective: build sales, inventory, cash, and profit scenarios to support resource decisions. Materials: [Historical operating data], [Current trend], [Pricing and promotion plan], [Inventory and procurement], [Budget and constraints]. Classify findings as Blocking, Major, Moderate, or Optimization, and quote the evidence that triggers each finding. Provide: (1) an issue list; (2) Base, downside, and upside forecasts, Key assumptions, Sensitivity, Decision triggers, Rolling update plan; (3) at least four improvements or experiments prioritized by impact versus effort; (4) for each experiment, the hypothesis, change, primary metric, guardrail metrics, observation period, and stopping rule; and (5) required human approvals before publishing or execution. Special requirement: Forecasts must state assumptions, ranges, and uncertainty. Separate model output from management judgment.